Watered Down Climate Conference
In New England, December heralds the arrival of winter and lots of activity preparing for the holiday season. The television blares out a stream of commercials about Christmas gift ideas. Chevy Chase’s laugh inducing antics as Clark Griswold, the hapless holiday romantic in the movie Christmas Vacation seems to saturate the television airwaves.
Competing with this holiday “white noise” were news snippets surrounding the Copenhagen Climate Change (COP15) conference which took place Dec 7-18. The news from COP15 was not as promising as some activists and governments would have liked. The conference produced the Copenhagen Accord which some have likened to a pre-nuptial agreement between nations regarding how they will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Copenhagen Accord has been criticized because it is non-binding and some developing countries have said the emission reduction targets are not ambitious enough.
However, the fact that all these nations met and had a serious dialogue about climate issues is a positive sign. In the United States we’ve seen how contentious tackling health care reform can be. From personal experience, I’ve seen that it can be frustrating to even reach consensus on local school issues. So it’s really not surprising that an undertaking as ambitious as setting guidelines for global greenhouse gas emissions is bound to require a herculean effort. It’s clear more serious work will be needed at the next United Nations climate conference in Mexico in 2010.
Much of the recent debate about a warming earth and climate change focuses on anthropogenic causes. Since the late 1800’s (see graph) and the advent of the Industrial Revolution temperature records show a warming trend. Some observers have linked this rise in temperature to the influences of industrialization and mankind’s altering of climate. The Copenhagen Accord advocates that nations control greenhouse emissions to keep global temperature from increasing 2 degrees Celsius. However, some skeptics argue that humans will have little ability to control global temperatures and that some of the recent warming is only part of the natural warming and cooling cycles that the earth experiences.
This image shows the instrumental record of global average w:temperatures as compiled by the NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The data set used follows the methodology outlined by Hansen, J., et al. (2006) "Global temperature change". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 103: 14288-14293.
If we step back and look at global temperature on a geologic timescale, it’s obvious that large fluctations in climate have occurred. The earth has been dominated by ice ages and glaciers over the past several million years. On average, the earth warms temporarily and experiences an interglacial period. Since the last ice age ended about 15,000 years ago, the earth’s temperatures have risen nearly 8.9 degrees Celsius (16 degrees F) and sea-level has risen approximately 300 feet. This shows how long term climate change dwarfs some of the short-term shifts that are currently under such close scrutiny.
This figure shows the Antarctic temperature changes during the last several glacial/interglacial cycles of the present ice age and a comparison to changes in global ice volume. The present day is on the right. The first two curves shows local changes in temperature at two sites in Antarctica as derived from deuterium isotopic measurements (δD) on ice cores (EPICA Community Members 2004, Petit et al. 1999). The final plot shows a reconstruction of global ice volume based on δ18O measurements on benthic foraminifera from a composite of globally distributed sediment cores and is scaled to match the scale of fluctuations in Antarctic temperature (Lisiecki and Raymo 2005). Note that changes in global ice volume and changes in Antarctic temperature are highly correlated, so one is a good estimate of the other, but differences in the sediment record do no necessarily reflect differences in paleotemperature. Horizontal lines indicate modern temperatures and ice volume. Differences in the alignment of various features reflect dating uncertainty and do not indicate different timing at different sites.
“The Geological Society of America (GSA) supports the scientific conclusions that Earth’s climate is changing; the climate changes are due in part to human activities; and the probable consequences of the climate changes will be significant and blind to geopolitical boundaries. Furthermore, the potential implications of global climate change and the time scale over which such changes will likely occur require active, effective, long-term planning.”
– GSA Position Statement adopted October, 2006
However, from a water resource perspective even slight changes in global temperatures can have significant impacts on local rainfall distribution patterns and recharge of water resources. This has serious implications, especially in terms of displacing or reducing production of agricultural crops. Therefore, the water issue should be inextricably connected to discussions of global warming, but apparently that was not the case at COP15.
In the following interview, Paul Horton, Chairman of the European Water Association Climate Change Working Group laments the lack of attention paid to the water issue at the Copenhagen Climate Change conference. He notes that climate change will bring about increased flooding and water scarcity, which will have severe societal impacts. Mr. Horton feels discussions about water resources are critical because countries will need to formulate a consistent approach to managing these resources within the context of global climate change.
Italian expert Riccardo Petrella, founder of the International Committee for the World Water Contract fears the privatization of water resources. Riccardo states “If water or air are turned into commodities, that is equivalent to commodifying life itself and leads to the privatization of democracy. If we do this, it will make democracy a lie.” [Source: No Water in Copenhagen Talks]
Some of the Copenhagen attendees reflect on “Water is Life” in this brief video.
Resources for further reading:
December 31, 2009 at 9:48 am